Nigeria 2023 Governor Elections Live Results

In a perfect world, a governorship candidate would be as popular as a presidential candidate. As in, if a presidential candidate got 45% of the vote, then the governorship candidate in the same party would get the same (or similar) percentage of the vote a few weeks later.

However, this often does not happen for various reasons: Some states could have a zoning 'agreement' that the governorship candidate does not adhere to, leading to a loss of support. There could be significant electoral malpractice like rigging, voter suppression and vote buying. The governorship candidate may also just be more (or less) popular compared to the presidential candidate.

Separating these effects requires a solid knowledge of dynamics and preferences in the state concerned. After all, politics is local. 

For our first example, let us look at Oyo State, where the PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar contested against Bola Tinubu of the APC. 

Seyi Makinde, governor of the state, was part of a group of five PDP governors opposed to Atiku's candidacy, fuelling Atiku's poor performance in the state, where Bola Tinubu got 56% of the vote.

During the governorship elections, the dynamic flipped. Makinde, viewed as having done well in his first term, was rewarded at the ballot box. The PDP got 66% of the vote, over 40 points higher than in the presidential election.

This example shows how the interactions between the perception of a candidate's performance and ethnic considerations can produce sharply different electoral outcomes for political parties. 

INEC has cited a 'margin of lead principle' as the reason for this decision. 

According to section 62 of the Electoral Act 2022, a margin of lead principle is applied when the margin of votes between the top two candidates is less than the total votes that have been voided. 

About 40,988 votes across 44 polling units were cancelled while the margin between PDP's Umaru Fintiri and APC's Aishatu Dahiru is 32,476 votes (with PDP in the lead).

This will mean a re-run in the affected polling units.  

There have been multiple reports of violence, voter suppression, and intimidation occurring in the 2023 governorship election cycle. 

The European Union chief observer disclosed that at least 21 Nigerians had been killed in the electoral process. In Abia, INEC reported that thugs invaded its office in Obingwa LGA, leading to a suspension of collation. In Rivers, the APC candidate, Tonye Cole's campaign DG, Chisom Lennard, was killed in Ahoada-West local government on Saturday while trying to prevent a ballot box from being snatched. 

Since 1999, violence has been a constant factor in Nigeria's elections. It goes without saying that violence not only negatively impacts the credibility of the process, but also hinders voter participation, casting a shadow on Nigeria's democracy.

See the breakdown below:

Results uploaded to the INEC result viewing portal (IReV) are coming in handy as disruptions affect gubernatorial result collation in certain states.

In Kaduna, thugs disrupted collation of Kudan LGA, destroying the result sheets in the process. This caused INEC to resort to IReV for uploaded results in the affected LGA. 

Similarly, after disruptions in the tightly contested Adamawa race, Prof Muhammed Mele, the INEC official in charge of Adamawa state, rejected the manually collated results from the Fufore local government area (LGA) of the state. Instead, results uploaded to IReV were used. 

This shift to IReV was impossible during the presidential elections because results were uploaded at a snail's pace. Eighteen hours after polls closed in the gubernatorial elections, about 77% of results were on IReV, compared to only 10% in the morning after the presidential elections. As of 6:35 pm this evening, gubernatorial result uploads on IReV are at 94%. 

As Fadekemi, Stears' head of Insights, rightly predicted, IReV has helped make the governorship elections less contentious than the presidential elections, which have seen the two major opposition parties head to the courts.

As at 6.15pm on March 20th, 20 states are now reporting. The APC has won 13 gubernatorial seats, PDP has 6 seat, and NNPP has one seat.

In this post, we zoom in on states that voted for different parties for the gubernatorial and presidential elections.

In 2019, three states (Sokoto, Bauchi and Plateau) recorded different wins for parties across governorship and presidential seats. In 2023, we are seeing this play out in 11 of the 20 state election results declared so far:

The above table shows how parties that won the guber races in states like Sokoto, Katsina, Yobe, Oyo, Lagos, Delta, Plateau, and so on, differ from those with the most votes in these same states during the presidential elections held three weeks ago.

Several reasons influence why people vote for different parties across several tickets, from identity politics to a lack of party ideologies.

To gain more insight into other interesting trends, follow Stears Elections.

APC has emerged victorious with 473,933 votes, while PDP secured 223,913 votes. With a margin of 250,020 votes, it is a clear win for Benue's governor-elect, Reverend Father Alia Hyacinth.

See the breakdown below:

 
Disclaimer: We understand that this election cycle has been marred by irregularities amidst credible reports of voter suppression and violence. 

In the 2023 governorship elections, only 26% of the 1,766,466 registered voters cast their votes on election day in Cross River. Meanwhile, in 2019, turnout in the state was 34%, as 522,276 people voted out of 1,527,289 registered voters

Interestingly, voter turnout for the governorship elections was slightly higher than the 2023 presidential elections (25%). In the 2023 presidential race, 441,576 people voted out of 1,766,466 registered voters. 

The last time we came close to a female governor was in 2015, when Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan, popularly known as Mama Taraba, contested for governor of Taraba state. 

Mama Taraba, a senator between 2011 and 2015, was the guber candidate for the APC in the Taraba governorship election of 2015. She lost the polls to the PDP's Darius Ishaku and was later appointed Minister of Women's Affairs by President Buhari.   

Interestingly, Adamawa's Binani, one of the likelier female victors (before the final LGA results from Adamawa state were called) and Mama Taraba are both named Aisha and served in the senate before running for governor.    

Disclaimer: We understand that this election cycle has been marred by irregularities amidst credible reports of voter suppression and violence. LGA-level results are provisional and not to be taken as official election results.

Results are in from the final LGA in Adamawa state, Fufore.

As a reminder, Adamawa is a key race to watch because the APC candidate Senator Aishatu Dahiru is one of this year's 25 female gubernatorial candidates. The Fufore results show that Senator Dahiru won in this LGA, with a vote margin of 4,368.

However, the total LGA votes show Senator Dihari trailing behind the incumbent, Governor Fintiri (PDP). APC received 390,575 votes in total, while PDP received 421,524. 

Pending a formal declaration from INEC, Governor Fintiri is set to become the 9th incumbent governor that was up for re-election to keep his seat.

See the breakdown below:

Disclaimer: We understand that this election cycle has been marred by irregularities amidst credible reports of voter suppression and violence. LGA-level results are provisional and not to be taken as official election results.

With 18 of 27 local governments declared in the state, the APC has won all and might be set for victory.

See the breakdown below:

See the breakdown below:

PDP's candidate, Caleb Mutfwang has won the governorship election in Plateau State. He polled 525, 299 votes to defeat his closest rival, Nentawe Yilwatda (APC) who polled 481,370 votes.

See the breakdown below:

With all 25 local governments reporting in Delta State, the PDP have won 21 local governments compared to the APC's 4 local governments.

This means that INEC is set to declare Sheriff Oborevwori as the state's governor-elect.

See the breakdown below: