Politics Blog
A new RNZ-Reid Research poll has National dropping 3.2 points to 25.9%.
National drops below 26% in new poll
UPDATED: National has sunk to its lowest level of support since the 2020 election, while the Greens have surged and Opportunity could hold the balance of power about a month out from voting day.
A new RNZ-Reid Research poll has National dropping 3.2 points to 25.9%, while Labour has also lost ground, falling 1.4 points to 30.8%.
The big winner is the Green Party, which has jumped 4.6 points to 14.8% — its strongest showing of the term.
Together, National and Labour now command just 56.7% of the vote, down from 61.3% in August and 64.9% at the 2023 election.
Opportunity has edged up to 5.5%, clearing the 5% threshold for the second RNZ-Reid Research poll in a row and putting it in a potential kingmaker position.
On the poll’s seat projection, National would have 32 MPs, NZ First 13 and ACT 11, leaving the current coalition five seats short of the 61 needed to govern.
The big winner is the Green Party, which has jumped 4.6 points to 14.8% — its strongest showing of the term.
Labour would have 37 MPs, the Greens 18 and Te Pāti Māori two, giving that bloc 57 seats.
Opportunity’s projected seven MPs could give either side a majority — although Christopher Luxon has previously ruled out working with the party.
Luxon falls in preferred PM rating
There was more bad news for Luxon personally. His preferred prime minister rating fell 2.8 points to 17.1%, behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 21.9%.
Winston Peters ranked third on 11.2% followed by Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick on 8.7%. 14.4% of people polled either didn't know who they'd prefer or didn't express a preference.
Opportunity’s projected seven MPs could give either side a majority — although Christopher Luxon has previously ruled out working with the party.
Luxon falls in preferred PM rating
There was more bad news for Luxon personally. His preferred prime minister rating fell 2.8 points to 17.1%, behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 21.9%.
Winston Peters ranked third on 11.2% followed by Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick on 8.7%. 14.4% of people polled either didn't know who they'd prefer or didn't express a preference.
More than half of those surveyed — 53.1% — also said New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction, compared with 31.6% who believed it was heading in the right direction.
The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters online between September 24 and October 1. It has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.